Climate change reduction – from international policy to local action in the Arctic

By Hans Meltofte, D.Sc., chief scientist on the Arctic Biodiversity Assessment

In the Synthesis of the Arctic Biodiversity Assessment, global warming is highlighted as the most important overall threat to Arctic biodiversity. Throughout the report, there are numerous examples that climate change is already affecting species and ecosystems in the Arctic, where temperatures increase twice as fast as the global mean. Globally, species are moving towards the poles with an average speed of 16.9km per decade and uphill with a speed of 11.0m per decade. This means that Arctic specialists are at risk from being squeezed out between expanding species and ecosystems from the south and decreasing land and sea area when moving north. Ironically, the amelioration of the climate and melting of ice at sea and on land in the Arctic makes it possible to search for and extract even more oil, gas and coal, the combustion of which is the main contributor to global warming. This is at the same time as simple calculations show that more than half the already known finds of oil, gas and coal should be left in the ground at least for the next half century, if global warming should be kept below the 2 °C upper limit that world leaders have set. Internationally, virtually all efforts to curb global warming have aimed at reducing the combustion of fossil fuels. However, should we actually succeed in this, world market prices would fall and make renewable energy even less competitive, and thereby counteract all the efforts. Obviously, we need to focus more at the producer end of the supply chain, i.e. reduce the extraction of fossil fuels. Here, Arctic nations have the chance to play a key role, since they control a very significant part of the finds and maybe will control an even bigger share in the future. Furthermore, oil extraction in the Arctic involves bigger risks than in most other places. There are a few signs that this understanding is seeping into the political sphere, and whether or not the ABA will contribute to such a development is the most obvious measure of success or failure for the report.